On The Quality of Strategic Decisions

Strategic Versus Tactical

Strategic decisions have long-term and wide-ranging consequences. They are pervasive in nature and affect activities, decisions, attitudes and behaviors throughout the organization. Their impact is profound but often far removed in time from the original decision. Strategic decisions answer such questions as:

• How should we structure the organization?
• What product technologies should we develop for the next decade?
• How do we align our manufacturing capabilities with our marketing strategy and targeted customers?
• When should we add new capacity?
• Should we make a major investment in a new process technology?
• What corporate image should we strive for in our major advertising campaign.

Conversely, tactical decisions have narrow and short-range consequences. They have limited influence; the effects come in days, weeks or months rather than years or decades. Tactical decisions answer such questions as:

• Who should we hire for the new sales position?
• Which supplier should we use for our XYZ component?
• Which supplier for our new production equipment?

Tactical decisions, because of their shorter range and limited focus, are usually more predictable and subject to quantitative analysis. Historical data reasonably predicts near-term performance and conditions. The narrow range limits the number of factors that can interact. If something does go wrong, damage is more contained.

Poor tactical decisions often come from incomplete use of available information. Decision processes where provincial concerns and power dominate also cause poor tactical decisions.

The disparate nature of tactical and strategic decisions requires different approaches. The factors that influence the quality of these decisions are also different between tactical and strategic.

The Limits of Quantitative Analysis

Managers must usually make strategic decisions in ambiguous, conditional and probabilistic circumstances. Facts are unclear. Quantitative data is questionable. Results depend on combinations of other circumstances. Factors that are trivial in one instance become significant in another. Future events are uncertain. Historical information and data have little relevance in a world of discontinuities.

Under these conditions, quantitative methods have limited use. Managers who rely on them become uncomfortable. They frequently find increased comfort by ignoring anything they cannot quantify. This approach limits them to incremental improvement along historical directions.

Analysis paralysis results when quantitative and definitive methods are inappropriately used. Analysis shows what is or what was but it cannot create. Intuition is creative. Through intuition we see what could be and should be, even things that never before existed.

In physics, the early experimental work of Morley, Michelson, Plank and others uncovered anomalies in Newtonian theory. By assuming that the anomalies were valid, Einstein used intuition to connect mass, time and energy. Analysis and experiment subsequently confirmed much of Einstein’s model.

As in physics, the most important strategic insights are almost always intuitive. Analysis lays the groundwork and confirms the results but cannot create. We need both.

What Is A High Quality Decision?

One obvious answer is “a decision that works.” But poor decisions are sometimes lucky. Would another decision have worked better? And, managers need to know if their decision is good before implementation, not weeks, months or years after. Since we cannot know the result in advance, managers must judge the quality of their decisions by the process, not the results.

We suggest that a high quality decision is one with the best probability of success at attaining a clear goal at the time the decision occurs. It comes from examination of the widest range of feasible options and uses both quantitative and qualitative analysis, often with a high dose of intuition.